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A Plan to Hold Iraq Together
The following Op-Ed by Senator Biden appeared in The
Washington Post today describing a better alternative for
Iraq.
A Plan to Hold Iraq Together
The Washington Post
by Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Four months ago, in an opinion piece with Les Gelb, president
emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, I laid out a
detailed plan to keep Iraq together, protect America's interests
and bring our troops home. Many experts here and in Iraq
embraced our ideas. Since then, circumstances in Iraq have made
the plan even more on target -- and urgent -- than when we first
proposed it.
The new, central reality in Iraq is that violence between
Shiites and Sunnis has surpassed the insurgency and foreign
terrorists as the main security threat. Our leading civilian and
military experts on Iraq -- Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and
Gens. George Casey, Peter Pace and John Abizaid -- have all
acknowledged that fact.
In December's elections, 90 percent of the votes went to
sectarian lists. Ethnic militias increasingly are the law in
Iraq. They have infiltrated the official security forces.
Sectarian cleansing has begun in mixed areas, with 200,000
Iraqis fleeing their homes in recent months for fear of
sectarian reprisals. Massive unemployment feeds the ranks of
sectarian militias and criminal gangs.
No number of troops can solve this
problem. The only way to hold Iraq together and create the
conditions for our armed forces to responsibly withdraw is to
give Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds incentives to pursue their
interests peacefully and to forge a sustainable political
settlement. Unfortunately, this administration does not have a
coherent plan or any discernible strategy for success in Iraq.
Its strategy is to prevent defeat and hand the problem off when
it leaves office.
Meanwhile, more and more Americans, understandably frustrated,
support an immediate withdrawal, even at the risk of trading a
dictator for chaos and a civil war that could become a regional
war.
Both are bad alternatives. The five-point plan Les Gelb and I
laid out offers a better way.
First, the plan calls for maintaining a unified Iraq by
decentralizing it and giving Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis their own
regions. The central government would be left in charge of
common interests, such as border security and the distribution
of oil revenue.
Second, it would bind the Sunnis to the deal by
guaranteeing them a proportionate share of oil revenue. Each
group would have an incentive to maximize oil production, making
oil the glue that binds the country together.
Third, the plan would create a massive jobs program while
increasing reconstruction aid -- especially from the oil-rich
Gulf states -- but tying it to the protection of minority
rights.
Fourth, it would convene an international conference that
would produce a regional nonaggression pact and create a Contact
Group to enforce regional commitments.
Fifth, it would begin the phased redeployment of U.S.
forces this year and withdraw most of them by the end of 2007,
while maintaining a small follow-on force to keep the neighbors
honest and to strike any concentration of terrorists.
This plan is consistent with Iraq's constitution, which already
provides for the country's 18 provinces to join together in
regions, with their own security forces and control over most
day-to-day issues. This plan is the only idea on the table for
dealing with the militias, which are likely to retreat to their
respective regions instead of engaging in acts of violence. This
plan is consistent with a strong central government that has
clearly defined responsibilities. Indeed, it provides an agenda
for that government, whose mere existence will not end sectarian
violence. This plan is not partition -- in fact, it may be the
only way to prevent violent partition and preserve a unified
Iraq.
To be sure, this plan presents real challenges, especially with
regard to large cities with mixed populations. We would maintain
Baghdad as a federal city, belonging to no one region. And we
would require international peacekeepers for other mixed cities
to support local security forces and further protect minorities.
The example of Bosnia is illustrative, if not totally analogous.
Ten years ago, Bosnia was being torn apart by ethnic cleansing.
The United States stepped in decisively with the Dayton Accords
to keep the country whole by, paradoxically, dividing it into
ethnic federations. We even allowed Muslims, Croats and Serbs to
retain separate armies. With the help of U.S. troops and others,
Bosnians have lived a decade in peace. Now they are
strengthening their central government and disbanding their
separate armies.
At best, the course we're on has no end in sight. At worst, it
leads to a terrible civil war and possibly a regional war. This
plan offers a way to bring our troops home, protect our security
interests and preserve Iraq as a unified country. Those who
reject this plan out of hand must answer one simple question:
What is your alternative?
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