..Potential Mass Migration Impacts
In recent years, the Monroe Country Tourist Development Council (TDC) has been proactive in planning for a day that U.S. Authorities lift the travel for Americans to Cuba. Those intentions are highlighted in a formal TDC marketing plan for an "Open Cuba"
But another challenge rests in defining likely impacts on the Florida Keys tourism infrastructure, in the event of a mass migration event from Cuba. That event could be triggered by the announcement of the death of Cuban Leader Fidel Castro, but Castro; death would not be the only factors, such as major hurricanes, epidemics, economic conditions as well as political issues.
What will happen
While law enforcement officials have plans to deal with mass migration from Cuba to the United States. In fact, U.S. authorities have made it clear that they plan to utilize all resources to prohibit mass immigration to America and they won't tolerate boats leaving U.S. waters headed for Cuba. Various agencies have been planning coordinated efforts to prevent such actions.
"Operation Vigilant Sentry" is the Department of Homeland Security's plan to react to any large movement of migrants towards U.S. shores from the south. The plan, developed, maintained and implements by the Homeland Security Task Force South East, synchronizes responses from local, state, and federal officials.
In March 2007, emergency officials and other staged a second mass migration. Their goal: to stop Cuban migration before they reach U.S. shores.
Their message is, " Don't take to the sea. It's dangerous " Rear Adm. David W. Kunkel, head of the U.S. Coast Guard in Miami and head of the two day exercise, said
But despite the drills, the true answer is that no one really knows for certain what the reaction will be to Castro's death or other any other factor that might trigger a mass migration event.
"When you plan, you anticipate the worst-case scenario " Will something go on that makes thousands of people leave the island and take to the seas? Will others try to sail from Florida to help them? Will we have a very dangerous situation in the Florida Straits? Or will nothing happen?
The Overseas Highway - Auto Traffic Flow
Despite some rumors, completely shutting down the Overseas highway is not a viable option, according to the Monroe Country Sheriff's Office. A more likely scenario, if there are significant migration efforts, is to closely monitor traffic and stop vehicles trailing boats. Monitoring points might be established in Florida City or other locations as determined by actionable intelligence.
"We don't want to shut down all business" said Cononel Rick Ramsey. "We just want to control people with boats"
Ramsey said efforts would begin with interviewing drivers of vehicles trailing boat and determining their intentions, especially those with boats in excess of 17 feet. If the situation became extremely intense, all boats and trailers might not be permitted to traverse the highway, until the situation eases.
If there was a large mass migration event, in the beginning, traffic could be heavy due to the transportation of federally provided supplies to support mass migration processing. There would also likely be traffic from family members traveling to Key West endeavoring to meet with loved ones.
Monroe County Emergency Management is to be involved in any significant response to a mass migration incident,according to Emergency Management Director "Irene Toner". Emergency Management would activate the Emergency Operations Center and would coordinate for any support requested by the responding agencies, communications between local and state agencies (including an activation of the emergency information hot line for public information), as well as a close coordination with the Department of Health until federal personnel arrived in the Keys. At that point, the county emergency staff would serve to support the federal effort.
It might take up to three days for the federal officials to fully staff operations in the Keys, officials said.
Other local law enforcement operations, such as the City of Key West, are making preparations to deal with mass migrations, if necessary.
Coastal Waters & Marinas
Most law enforcement efforts will focus on the Florida Straits and other waters that surround the Keys and South Florida mainland.
Among options explored at the December tabletop exercise: closing all marinas in South Florida; shutting down airports and limiting fuel sales. But those are likely to be the worst-case scenarios.
More likely, according to Key West U.S. Coast Guard Deputy Commander "Gwen Keenan" is a situation where marine traffic would be restricted.
A security zone is one tool that exists to mange maritime traffic in the event of a potential for mass migration, Keenan said.
Such a security zone can entail an array of restrictions. Constraints range from a temporary closure of all waterways, to restricted transit within a certain distance offshore (state or federal waters, three or 12 nautical miles respectively) or to certain types of traffic (closure of recreational traffic, while commercial traffic could continue) to no zone and complete unfettered maritime traffic. The extent of the restriction would be determinded by the particular circumstances of the scenario. As is the case now, no U.S. private vessel would be permitted to legally travel to Cuba, unless the master or owner posses a special permit from the federal government.
Keenan stressed that the Coast Guard would focus on safety of life at sea, border security, enforcement of laws and treaties - including the interception of migrates at sea - while balancing the maintenance of local, maritime-oriented commerce. The U.S. Navy would be positioned to augment Coast Guard efforts if required.
If a significant mass migrant events occurs, the Navy may be asked to establish a migrant processing station at the Key West Naval Station, according to Brooks.
Airports
In worst-case scenario, some, or all of general and commercial aviation channels could be temporarily closed. But minor & moderate scenarios, County Airport Director "Peter Harton" expects security would simply be increased at both airports. But doesn't anticipate a major physical interruption to commercial or general aviation service to Florida Keys Marathon and Key West International Airports.
When contacted, a Federal Aviation Administration (FFA) official confirmed Horton's analysis and said the priority was to maintain commercial and general aviation routes over South Florida and the Florida Keys, unless provided contrary direction from other federal agencies.
Immigration and Customs
" The goal of our agency is not to impede commerce," said Zachary Mann, senior special agent and spokesman for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "We want to make sure people that are going down to the Keys or are leaving from the marina are doing it for the right reasons".
Mann said right now the concentration is on prevention (of mass immigration) and education to deter people from illegally participating in migration activities. In that regards, officers might be stationed at boat ramps & marinas to make certain boaters are appropriately informed.
"We don't want to shut down the marinas, boat ramps and airports," he said "that would be a worst-case scenario, if citizens and residents in South Florida blatantly violated the law"
Mann said plans in place provide different responses predicted on various scenarios.
Potential News Media Coverage
Media coverage of the reaction of Castro's death will be voluminous, worldwide in scope and lasting as long as demonstrations and celebrations last. While most coverage will probably focus on Miami, covering actions of various enforcement agencies. In the event of significant migrant flow to South Florida, the Keys would most likely be the focus of media attention as it was during the 1980 Mariel boat lift and another boat lift in 1994.
In the event of mass migration, Joint Information Centers would be established both in Key West and Miami.
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A women died after the Coast Guard chased and captured a speedboat carrying 31 Cuban migrants and 3 suspected immigrant smugglers about 4 miles off the coast of Boca Chica, Florida.
The incident began about 6:30 AM. When the Coast Guard gave chase to a grossly overloaded 36 foot speed boat, moving fast and without proper navigational lights, The boat was equipped to carry only 9 passengers.
The chase began 39 miles south of Key West, the captain ignored numerous orders to stop and tried to ram a pursuing Coast Guard boat more than 5 times, forcing the Coast Guard to fire at it's 3 engines.
A crewman from one of the pursuing Coast Guard boats applied 2 shots of disabling fire to the engines of the fleeing vessel to finally stop it and rescue the migrants.
Once aboard the vessel, the Coast Guard crew found a women with sever facial bruises and head injuries. She was evacuated to Key West for medical attention but died en route. She was pronounced died at 8: 34 AM.
Other migrants on the boat, including a pregnant women and three men, also received medical attention. The pregnant women was hospitalized but didn't appear she was in serious condition, and the 3 men were treated aboard the Cost Guard cutter.
..Two illegal immigrant traffickers were sentenced 10 years in prison for the drowning death of a six-year old Cuban boy off the Florida coast in October.
The traffickers, Cuban nationals Alexander Gil Rodriguez and Luis Manuel Taboada-Cabrera, received the maximum penalty after pleading guilty to charges of conspiracy to encourage aliens to illegally enter the United States.
.. - Get Your Own
Cubans entering the Cayman Islands illegally without documents are to be treated under a new set of guidelines recently issued by Cabinet, which have already run into criticism on Cayman Brac, where the majority of migrants arrive.
Under the guidelines, passed on Tuesday, 11 January, migrants encountered in Cayman’s territorial waters or who come ashore on any of the three Islands will be refused permission to land and will no longer be given assistance to enable them to continue their journey.
Those able to depart immediately and wishing to do so will be allowed to leave. Otherwise they will be detained and repatriated to Cuba as allowed by the 1999 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with that country, unless they are determined to be refugees under the 1951 United Nations Convention on Refugees.
Brac resident James Tibbetts says he feels as though the Islands are making a huge mistake.
He said the migrants would basically be given the choice of continuing their journey hungry, tired and thirsty, or getting a good meal and be repatriated.
He believes that the UK should help the Cayman Islands to deal with this situation by supplying the Islands with a couple of patrol boats.
These vessels would police the waters between here and Cuba and, if they find migrants at sea, they should return them, as the US Coastguard does. If they get this far, and can continue their journey, he feels it is inhumane to send them back.
Only officers trained to handle illegal migrants should be in charge of the arrival and departure of the Cubans, he said, and thought that they should be given the proper time to make repairs and wait until the weather is favourable. Local charities, churches and individuals should be allowed to help them and, above all, they should be treated humanely, said Mr. Tibbetts.
The problem, he said, is the US wet foot dry foot policy, by which most Cubans, unlike economic migrants from other countries, are allowed to stay if they reach dry land. Mr. Tibbetts says this policy will continue to encourage Cubans to try desperate measures to reach the US.
“There’s no question that this is a complicated issue,†he said, but pointed out that the migrants come from a communist country and asks why their case is treated differently from people escaping from Eastern Europe during the Cold War.
“Imagine if a country had turned those people back,†he said. He questions the term “economic migrantâ€. He says the Cubans are not considered a political threat so long as they don’t complain that they don’t have enough to eat or enough electricity or enough water, but complaints in that communist country are dealt with as political activism.
US sanctions are “enabling Castro to stay in power because he can blame everything on the US,†added Mr. Tibbetts.
According to a GIS press release, the new policy came into effect Wednesday, 12 January, and replaces the more lenient procedures that were adopted last year by government but which were subject to its ongoing review.
The preamble to the new guidelines, which have been released to the media for publication, give the reason for the change of policy: “As a result of increased migration of Cuban nationals through the Cayman Islands and reported incidents of violent methods used to commandeer vessels to transport Cuban migrants to the Cayman Islands, the Cayman Islands Government, in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Cayman Islands and the Government of the Republic of Cuba will return all Cuban migrants to Cuba who illegally enter the Cayman Islands.â€
Chief Immigration Officer Franz Manderson explained that the number of Cubans arriving here had increased steadily during 2004, reaching a total of over 300 for the year.
The guidelines have provision for rendering humanitarian aid if necessary: “Should a vessel carrying Cuban migrants become disabled or in distress, every effort must be made to prevent loss of life. In these circumstances any Cuban rescued will be repatriated in accordance with this policy and the MOU.†Cuban migrants will not be permitted “to either acquire additional or alternative crafts; or arrange or accept transport by alternative means.â€
Cubans being repatriated however will get accommodation, food and water, clothing, phone calls and regular information about their repatriation.
Mr. Manderson noted the British High Commission in Havana would be informed of the policy and their assistance sought in spreading the word among would-be migrants .
The USCGToby Keith - Courtesy Of The Red, White, And Blue
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On New Year's Eve of 1958 Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista fled Cuba after ruling the Caribbean island for six years, nine months and 21 days. The Fidel Castro's Rebel Army, which had been fighting Batista for two years, took control of Cuban largest cities, including Havana.
Batista, a sergeant who led a revolution against high-ranking officers of the Cuban military in 1933, had ousted democratic-elected President Carlos Prio on March 10, 1952.
Liberated from Spain in 1898 by the United States, Cuba had had two constitutional republics: the first one began in 1902 with the election of Tomas Estrada Palma as Cuba's first president; the second one began in 1940, after a new Constitution and with Batista as an elected president. The first republic ended in 1929, when President Gerardo Machado and the Cuban Congress decided to allow an unconstitutional second term for Machado, who fled the country in 1933 amid a strong opposition from students, intellectuals and labor unions.
Batista led his army revolt only days after the fall of Machado, and was seen as one of the 1933 revolutionaries.
Fidel Castro was born under the Machado regime, in 1926. Graduated as a lawyer from the University of Havana, Castro became a revolutionary leader in the late 40s. In 1953 he headed a military attack against army barracks in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba's second largest city. About 100 people from both sides died in the event. Castro was arrested and sentenced to 15 years in prison. Freed two years later, he traveled to Mexico where he trained a group of revolutionaries. He landed in Cuba in 1956 with 82 members of the Rebel Army, including Argentinian guerrilla fighter Che Guevara. Less than 20 survived an offensive of the Batista's air force at their arrival in the eastern region of Cuba. However, they continued the struggle.
The Revolutionary Victory
On January 2, 1959 guerilla commander Camilo Cienfuegos took over Havana. On January 8, Castro arrived in the Cuban capital after a long journey from the eastern mountains of Sierra Maestra, where he had been leading the revolution against Batista.
Most Cubans supported the revolution as they wanted to restore the 1940 Constitution abolished by Batista in 1952. Some social promises by Castro also brought support to the revolutionary regime. Promised general elections never took place.
Since the very beginning, the Rebel Army used firing squads to execute officials from the Batista regime. The most notorious executioner was Che Guevara, who was in charge of La Cabana fortress in Havana. He has been accused of ordering the execution of more than 500 political prisoners there, including about 100 in one night.
But 1960 was a decisive year for the so-called Cuban Revolution. In February, Cuba and the Soviet Union signed their first trade agreement. In May both countries resumed diplomatic relations. By July, Castro had confiscated all American properties valued at $1.6 billion and Cuban largest businesses valued at $25 billion.
Also by the summer of 1960 the new revolutionary regime had closed or confiscated all Cuban newspapers, magazines, radio and TV stations. Fundamental freedoms disappeared. Every Cuban with a political opinion different from the revolutionary regime was considered a "counter-revolutionary," then sentenced to jail or executed.
In January, 1961 President Dwight D. Eisenhower broke diplomatic ties with Cuba. In April a force of 1,200 Cuban exiles trained by the CIA invaded Cuba but was defeated in less than three days. At the end of the episode, Castro declared the "socialist nature" of his revolution and became a closer "friend" of the Soviet Union. Since then the Cuban regime played a leading role in the Cold War. In October, 1962 the Cuban missile crisis was about to cause a nuclear holocaust. The Soviet Union placed nuclear weapons in Cuban soil aimed at the United States. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev reached an agreement to end the crisis. Moscow agreed to withdraw the missiles and Washington promised not to invade Cuba.
The U.S. controversial embargo on Cuba was immediately implemented. Those who oppose the embargo say it has not hurt the Castro regime but the Cuban people. With the embargo, defenders say, Castro cannot get hard currency to implement more political repression or train foreign guerillas. In 2002, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter said in Havana that he opposed the embargo because it hurts the good will between the two nations. But he also said Cuba holds trade relations with more than 180 countries and the Castro regime can buy anything it needs from those partners at lower prices.
More than two million Cubans have left Cuba legally and also illegaly, as they cannot leave their own country without a government authorization. Some of them defected while in official trips. Others have crossed the dangerous Florida Straits in home-made rafts to reach the United States, where most of them live. The Castro regime calls exiles "traitors" and "worms."
A Soviet Cuba
A Cuban military build-up followed the missile crisis. Fidel Castro has publicly recognized that his regime trained and financed almost all guerilla movements in the Western Hemisphere, except for those of Mexico. During 30 years, the Soviet Union provided Cuba with arms and military trainning, and heavily subsidized the Cuban economy with up to $6 billion a year.
Since the mid 60s the Cuban government owned all production and service industries, including all news media. It is still the only employer in the Caribbean island.
For decades, Cuba has had a political system similar to the one which existed in the now-defunct Soviet Union. Cuba's Communist Party is the only legal political party in the small country.
In the early 90s, when the Communist bloc was dismantled and the Soviet Union ceased to exist as a country, the Cuban regime legalized the use of U.S. dollars as a relief for the country's weakened economy. It also gave some signals of a possible political opening, but finally decided to remain as a Communist dictatorship incarcerating peaceful dissidents and not allowing fundamental freedoms. International human rights organizations such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Pax Christi, Reporters Without a Border and others, continuously criticize the Cuban regime, and Castro has been profiled as one of the worst enemies of the press.
Castro, who stands as Cuba's First Secretary of the Communist Party, President of the State Council, President of the Council of Ministers and Commander-in-Chief of the Cuban Armed Forces, is today the only dictator alive who has been in power for 46 years, followed by Libya's Muammar Khadaffi who has been a ruler for 36 years. In modern times, only the late North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung reached 47 years as a dictator. Castro will break such a record in 2007.