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Stronger sun is blamed for global warming
SCIENTISTS have dismissed claims that taxing fuel will stop global warming, because new evidence shows it is caused mainly by the sun.
The temperature rise, previously blamed on the burning of fossil fuels, results primarily from an increase in solar radiation, according to studies to be released this week.
The research, some of it by by the European Space Agency (ESA), uses satellite and other astronomical data to show that earlier computer models severely underestimated the sun's impact.
The potential political impact is huge. Governments worldwide have accepted scientists' warnings that they must cut carbon dioxide emissions and used them to justifiy tax increases and road charges.
Scientists measured a global average temperature rise of 0.6C over the past century. This is predicted to exceed 2C by 2100. The rise has partly melted the North Pole and the Greenland and Antarctica ice caps and made British winters far warmer.
The new studies say the main reason is a solar energy surge and a particularly big increase in ultraviolet (UV) light. This has coincided with a doubling in strength of the sun's magnetic field.
Much of the data on the sun's role in global warming was gathered by the ESA's sun-watching Soho satellite.
Paal Brekke, Soho's deputy project scientist, said the results could change thinking on climate. "Taxing carbon-based fuels may be good for other reasons but our evidence suggests it will not be much help in keeping the Earth cool," he said.
Global warming is caused by the Earth's atmosphere acting like the glass of a greenhouse. The air lets light through but prevents the heat generated when it hits the ground from being radiated back into space. The main cause had seemed to be the 30% rise in carbon dioxide levels since pre-industrial times from fossil fuels burnt by motor vehicles, power stations and other activities.
The sun's role was considered secondary. Scientists previously calculated that the sun radiates only 0.7% more energy than 150 years ago, causing about a tenth of global warming. Brekke and others say the models underestimated the 3% UV light increase over the same period, generating extra ozone that locks more heat into the atmosphere.
Copyright 2000 Times Newspapers Ltd.
Stronger sun is blamed for global warming
